June 26, 2022

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Bitcoin Is Leading Indicator of Stock-Market Bottom, Mobius Says

(Bloomberg) — If you’re a stock trader, you should probably be turning your attention to cryptocurrencies right about now.

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That’s according to Mark Mobius, who co-founded Mobius Capital Partners after spending more than three decades at Franklin Templeton Investments.

“Cryptocurrencies are a measure of investor sentiment,” he said in an interview Wednesday. “Bitcoin goes down, the next day the Dow Jones goes down. That’s the pattern you get. That shows that Bitcoin is a leading indicator.”

Only when institutional and retail investors truly “throw in the towel” and stop putting more money into the market because of losses is when sentiment has hit rock bottom, he said. “That’s the time to start buying stocks.”

Worries about global recessionary risks have wiped out billions in Bitcoin’s market value, with the token crashing about 70% from its peak to trade near $20,000. That tumble has coincided with a plunge into a bear market by a closely watched MSCI world equity index, with investors fretting over the impact of rising interest rates in most countries as well as supply-chain disruptions in China and Europe.

As long as Bitcoin investors “are still talking about buying on dips that means there is a feeling of hope,” he said. “That also means that we have not reached the bottom of a bear market.”

The veteran emerging-markets investor said he prefers to hold “some cash” at the moment, and may deploy it into Indian stocks in the building-materials, software and medical-testing sectors.

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